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	<title>Comments on: Predicting Velocity When Teams Change Frequently</title>
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	<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently</link>
	<description>Succeeding With Agile®</description>
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		<title>By: Mike Cohn</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-170656</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Cohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Mar 2011 02:57:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-170656</guid>
		<description>Hi Krystal--
Whoa, way too much there for me to perhaps comment on fully but I&#039;ll try. 

We call it a &quot;product backlog&quot; because there should be one per product. It&#039;s not a project backlog or a team backlog. To have team backlogs would create prioritization problems (team A&#039;s backlog could be entirely lower priority than team B&#039;s but we wouldn&#039;t know it if they were separate). I advise a single product backlog with multiple views into it (essentially MVC for backlogs). Some tools support such an approach.

The real answer for your situation though is that when someone on Team A works for Team X (the waterfall team doing testing) that work should not count in Team A&#039;s velocity. Team A gets credit presumably for the points on the stories they &quot;finish&quot;. But those items aren&#039;t really finished until they pass test (by Team x). So giving Team A credit for the story in sprint 3 when they &quot;finish it&quot; and then some more credit in sprint 4 when it&#039;s tested is wrong. It overstates velocity.

It&#039;s easy to see why: Suppose Team A does really sloppy work but claims to be done. They get say 5 points. Next sprint team x finds a ton of bugs and team A fixes them, claiming 3 more points of credit. Contrast that with Team A doing an awesome job and having no bugs found by Team x. In that case Team A would take no points in that second sprint. The sloppier Team A is, the more velocity points they get. Bad idea!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Krystal&#8211;<br />
Whoa, way too much there for me to perhaps comment on fully but I&#8217;ll try. </p>
<p>We call it a &#8220;product backlog&#8221; because there should be one per product. It&#8217;s not a project backlog or a team backlog. To have team backlogs would create prioritization problems (team A&#8217;s backlog could be entirely lower priority than team B&#8217;s but we wouldn&#8217;t know it if they were separate). I advise a single product backlog with multiple views into it (essentially MVC for backlogs). Some tools support such an approach.</p>
<p>The real answer for your situation though is that when someone on Team A works for Team X (the waterfall team doing testing) that work should not count in Team A&#8217;s velocity. Team A gets credit presumably for the points on the stories they &#8220;finish&#8221;. But those items aren&#8217;t really finished until they pass test (by Team x). So giving Team A credit for the story in sprint 3 when they &#8220;finish it&#8221; and then some more credit in sprint 4 when it&#8217;s tested is wrong. It overstates velocity.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to see why: Suppose Team A does really sloppy work but claims to be done. They get say 5 points. Next sprint team x finds a ton of bugs and team A fixes them, claiming 3 more points of credit. Contrast that with Team A doing an awesome job and having no bugs found by Team x. In that case Team A would take no points in that second sprint. The sloppier Team A is, the more velocity points they get. Bad idea!</p>
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		<title>By: Krystal</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-170535</link>
		<dc:creator>Krystal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Mar 2011 23:34:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-170535</guid>
		<description>Hi Mike,
First of, I gotta say, I am a huge fan, I love your book and now I am loving your blogs. 
I am currently facing a scrum issue at work, in regards to what is the best way to handle team members going to another project, but tracking the velocity as accurately as possible. 
Here’s the scenario:

We have Team A, B, &amp; C (scrum teams), their primary purpose is to work on new features; we also have team x (waterfall team)  that is working on the final regression of the software product before it goes to production. However, team x needs more resources to finish by the deadline as well as need the knowledge and expertise of some of the folks on Team A, B &amp; C. Team A, B,&amp; C will lend team X a few folks, however, this now changes the resource count and velocity.
(Here’s the dilemna)

Some of the PMs feel that Teams A, B &amp; C should still count the work that the loaned out members do for team X on their back log, so this way the resource count and velocity can be tracked and they feel that it would be accurate. 

	So the stories for Team A’s sprint backlog look like this for example:
Tasks	                          Mon	Tues	Wed 	Thurs 	Fri
Code interface (team A task)	4	 	 	 	 
Test interface (team A task)	 		 	 8	 
Add error logging (team A task)	 	4	 	 	 
Test languages (team X task)	 	 	 	 4	 
Stabilize the Eval Environment (team x task)	 	 	 	 4
Write the xyz class (team A task)	 	 	8	 	 

I on the other hand proposed your method on how to track velocity with a varying amount of team members from sprint to sprint, but I can’t get them to see that the impediments on team x are much different than the ones that team A experiences and can toy with their velocity numbers and make them inaccurate. Also, team X doesn’t track velocity, so management feels that we should track team velocity whenever we can, even if it means adding another project’s story to their backlog, just so the number of resources can stay the same.

The feedback that I am getting from managers is that there is a lot of overhead and no benefit to combining the 2 projects into 1 backlog because the loaned resource (from Team A for example) still has to: 
•	provide status to their team as well as Team X
•	still go to team A’s planning meetings 
•	estimate stories for team A as well as provide estimates on the stories that they will do for team
•	Enter their time into Team A’s scrum tool for the hours that they did worked on the tasks for team X

The way we use to do it, was treat the loaned resource as “time away from their project” so they can go work on the other project 100%. This would also allow us to use your method to track velocity for a varying team.
So I was hoping to get more feedback from you as to why 2 projects should not be combined into 1 backlog. Amazing there isn’t much information about this on the internet, I have tried to searching and I believe you are the only one who has at least offered up a solution to track varying resources. Feel free to let me know when there is a good time to track stories from 2 different projects in backlog as well, because I can’t personally think of any reason.
I apologize for the length of this, but would appreciate any advice that you have to offer.
Thanks,
Krystal</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Mike,<br />
First of, I gotta say, I am a huge fan, I love your book and now I am loving your blogs.<br />
I am currently facing a scrum issue at work, in regards to what is the best way to handle team members going to another project, but tracking the velocity as accurately as possible.<br />
Here’s the scenario:</p>
<p>We have Team A, B, &amp; C (scrum teams), their primary purpose is to work on new features; we also have team x (waterfall team)  that is working on the final regression of the software product before it goes to production. However, team x needs more resources to finish by the deadline as well as need the knowledge and expertise of some of the folks on Team A, B &amp; C. Team A, B,&amp; C will lend team X a few folks, however, this now changes the resource count and velocity.<br />
(Here’s the dilemna)</p>
<p>Some of the PMs feel that Teams A, B &amp; C should still count the work that the loaned out members do for team X on their back log, so this way the resource count and velocity can be tracked and they feel that it would be accurate. </p>
<p>	So the stories for Team A’s sprint backlog look like this for example:<br />
Tasks	                          Mon	Tues	Wed 	Thurs 	Fri<br />
Code interface (team A task)	4<br />
Test interface (team A task)	 		 	 8<br />
Add error logging (team A task)	 	4<br />
Test languages (team X task)	 	 	 	 4<br />
Stabilize the Eval Environment (team x task)	 	 	 	 4<br />
Write the xyz class (team A task)	 	 	8	 	 </p>
<p>I on the other hand proposed your method on how to track velocity with a varying amount of team members from sprint to sprint, but I can’t get them to see that the impediments on team x are much different than the ones that team A experiences and can toy with their velocity numbers and make them inaccurate. Also, team X doesn’t track velocity, so management feels that we should track team velocity whenever we can, even if it means adding another project’s story to their backlog, just so the number of resources can stay the same.</p>
<p>The feedback that I am getting from managers is that there is a lot of overhead and no benefit to combining the 2 projects into 1 backlog because the loaned resource (from Team A for example) still has to:<br />
•	provide status to their team as well as Team X<br />
•	still go to team A’s planning meetings<br />
•	estimate stories for team A as well as provide estimates on the stories that they will do for team<br />
•	Enter their time into Team A’s scrum tool for the hours that they did worked on the tasks for team X</p>
<p>The way we use to do it, was treat the loaned resource as “time away from their project” so they can go work on the other project 100%. This would also allow us to use your method to track velocity for a varying team.<br />
So I was hoping to get more feedback from you as to why 2 projects should not be combined into 1 backlog. Amazing there isn’t much information about this on the internet, I have tried to searching and I believe you are the only one who has at least offered up a solution to track varying resources. Feel free to let me know when there is a good time to track stories from 2 different projects in backlog as well, because I can’t personally think of any reason.<br />
I apologize for the length of this, but would appreciate any advice that you have to offer.<br />
Thanks,<br />
Krystal</p>
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		<title>By: Making babies &#171; EscApologist</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-63670</link>
		<dc:creator>Making babies &#171; EscApologist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jan 2010 16:03:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-63670</guid>
		<description>[...] this blog post Mike Cohn estimates that adding a seventh developer to a six man team will reduce the velocity by [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] this blog post Mike Cohn estimates that adding a seventh developer to a six man team will reduce the velocity by [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Cohn</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-31698</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Cohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2009 22:59:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-31698</guid>
		<description>Diogo--
Please look at these blog postings that address your question:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=43&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Establishing a Common Baseline for Story Points&lt;/a&gt;
and
&lt;a href=&quot;http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=44&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Is It a Good Idea to Establish a Common Baseline for Story Points?&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Diogo&#8211;<br />
Please look at these blog postings that address your question:<br />
<a href="http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=43" rel="nofollow">Establishing a Common Baseline for Story Points</a><br />
and<br />
<a href="http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=44" rel="nofollow">Is It a Good Idea to Establish a Common Baseline for Story Points?</a></p>
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		<title>By: Diogo</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-31609</link>
		<dc:creator>Diogo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:20:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-31609</guid>
		<description>Hi Mike.

About team velocity, it measures how much of the backlog (story points) the team can consume (produce working software) in a iteration, right ? I have a question about how to compare velocities across different teams in different projects. Since story points are relative, velocity is as well. Ex: Team A in project I can consume 10 points per iteration and team B can consume 10 points in project II. Looking at the velocity it seems that both are equally productive, but in a further investigation you realize that team A used a very small story as base ( attributed 2 story point to it), and team B used a larger one. Considering this scenario, how can I compare velocities among projects? Even more, what kind of metrics I can collect and compare across projects?

Thanks a lot,
Diogo</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Mike.</p>
<p>About team velocity, it measures how much of the backlog (story points) the team can consume (produce working software) in a iteration, right ? I have a question about how to compare velocities across different teams in different projects. Since story points are relative, velocity is as well. Ex: Team A in project I can consume 10 points per iteration and team B can consume 10 points in project II. Looking at the velocity it seems that both are equally productive, but in a further investigation you realize that team A used a very small story as base ( attributed 2 story point to it), and team B used a larger one. Considering this scenario, how can I compare velocities among projects? Even more, what kind of metrics I can collect and compare across projects?</p>
<p>Thanks a lot,<br />
Diogo</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Cohn</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-27166</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Cohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 22:56:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-27166</guid>
		<description>I have normally not kept the team size constant but changed members (that is, swap member A for member B). So in my experience there is usually a team size change as well. In developing this approach years ago I was after a general way to make predictions about changes in staff size, not changes based on specific individuals. I would suggest that your knowledge of the individuals will probably be the best way to guess their impact on velocity (&quot;Hmm, better programmer but horrible personality, maybe a slightly negative impact overall.&quot;). I&#039;ve never tried to quantify that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have normally not kept the team size constant but changed members (that is, swap member A for member B). So in my experience there is usually a team size change as well. In developing this approach years ago I was after a general way to make predictions about changes in staff size, not changes based on specific individuals. I would suggest that your knowledge of the individuals will probably be the best way to guess their impact on velocity (&#8220;Hmm, better programmer but horrible personality, maybe a slightly negative impact overall.&#8221;). I&#8217;ve never tried to quantify that.</p>
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		<title>By: Yogesh Kumar</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-27155</link>
		<dc:creator>Yogesh Kumar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 17:28:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-27155</guid>
		<description>This article probably assumes that team members are same and some addition and deletion of members is happening. If we keep the team size same but change the team members then we can see a very different velocity. How do you track team member changes for planning purposes? Practically, it is very common to see team members getting changed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article probably assumes that team members are same and some addition and deletion of members is happening. If we keep the team size same but change the team members then we can see a very different velocity. How do you track team member changes for planning purposes? Practically, it is very common to see team members getting changed.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Cohn</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-24923</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Cohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Oct 2008 03:19:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-24923</guid>
		<description>Hi John--

I normally make the assumption that sick time will be constant from sprint to sprint. For vacations, if I&#039;m looking ahead 3-6 months I will normally just assume that I don&#039;t know when vacation will occur but that it is already accounted for in how I use a range of velocities to make predictions.

For holidays, if it&#039;s a simple one-day thing I usually don&#039;t worry about. If it&#039;s something like Christmas or the US Thanksgiving holiday that are multiple days and seem to have a bigger effect because people are less focused, I do try to account for them. It&#039;s October 25 as I&#039;m writing this. If I were putting together a 3-month plan right now I would probably assume a slight drop in velocity around late November and late December/January 1 to account for this. 

I&#039;d either wing it and guess at how much to drop velocity by OR (even better) I&#039;d look at what happened last year. I constantly tell companies to capture this type of data. Wouldn&#039;t it be nice right now to know very simply that velocity dropped by an average of 25% for the sprints of comparable length that included Christmas last year? I wouldn&#039;t make adjustments for team size or how many days of planned vacation were in those sprints, etc. I&#039;d just want to know what the average drop was in percentage terms by sprint length.

If I were predicting velocity for a team that has never worked together and had only 1-2 sprints of history I would express my estimate of velocity as a range. I would use whatever historical data I have (from the 1-2 sprints) and would look at standard deviations of velocity from all other teams and apply that plus a good dose of my own common sense and intuition. But, even better, I would try not to be in a position where someone needs an absolutely perfect date from me for a team that has no prior history. I&#039;d be willing to come up with an answer but I&#039;d want them to understand all the potential problems with it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi John&#8211;</p>
<p>I normally make the assumption that sick time will be constant from sprint to sprint. For vacations, if I&#8217;m looking ahead 3-6 months I will normally just assume that I don&#8217;t know when vacation will occur but that it is already accounted for in how I use a range of velocities to make predictions.</p>
<p>For holidays, if it&#8217;s a simple one-day thing I usually don&#8217;t worry about. If it&#8217;s something like Christmas or the US Thanksgiving holiday that are multiple days and seem to have a bigger effect because people are less focused, I do try to account for them. It&#8217;s October 25 as I&#8217;m writing this. If I were putting together a 3-month plan right now I would probably assume a slight drop in velocity around late November and late December/January 1 to account for this. </p>
<p>I&#8217;d either wing it and guess at how much to drop velocity by OR (even better) I&#8217;d look at what happened last year. I constantly tell companies to capture this type of data. Wouldn&#8217;t it be nice right now to know very simply that velocity dropped by an average of 25% for the sprints of comparable length that included Christmas last year? I wouldn&#8217;t make adjustments for team size or how many days of planned vacation were in those sprints, etc. I&#8217;d just want to know what the average drop was in percentage terms by sprint length.</p>
<p>If I were predicting velocity for a team that has never worked together and had only 1-2 sprints of history I would express my estimate of velocity as a range. I would use whatever historical data I have (from the 1-2 sprints) and would look at standard deviations of velocity from all other teams and apply that plus a good dose of my own common sense and intuition. But, even better, I would try not to be in a position where someone needs an absolutely perfect date from me for a team that has no prior history. I&#8217;d be willing to come up with an answer but I&#8217;d want them to understand all the potential problems with it.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-24872</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 21:55:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-24872</guid>
		<description>How would you predict sprint velocity when the amount of vacation, holiday, and sick time fluctuates from sprint to sprint AND resources are added?  For instance, one sprint may span a holiday and include 5 days of vacation time while the very next sprint has everyone in attendance plus a new resource in the sprint.  I understand this is where an average velocity calculation can help.  But a 5-sprint average will take 10 weeks to acquire (we have 2-week sprints) which is too long to wait in an agile environment.  Suggestions?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How would you predict sprint velocity when the amount of vacation, holiday, and sick time fluctuates from sprint to sprint AND resources are added?  For instance, one sprint may span a holiday and include 5 days of vacation time while the very next sprint has everyone in attendance plus a new resource in the sprint.  I understand this is where an average velocity calculation can help.  But a 5-sprint average will take 10 weeks to acquire (we have 2-week sprints) which is too long to wait in an agile environment.  Suggestions?</p>
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		<title>By: Sarah</title>
		<link>http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/predicting-velocity-when-team-membership-or-size-changes-frequently/comment-page-1#comment-23269</link>
		<dc:creator>Sarah</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:20:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mountaingoatsoftware.com/?p=50#comment-23269</guid>
		<description>Yes I have been collating data in a very similar way to help with the sprint planning process and more importantly to measure if the development process improvements we are making is having a positive impact on the team velocity.

I have found the best use of the story point averages are within the Sprint Planning meeting where they are used as a reality check to avoid over zealous teams signing up to too much work.  The difference I have seen in taking this approach rather than just to base the next sprint on the previous sprint, is that teams are completing their work within the sprint period more and more.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes I have been collating data in a very similar way to help with the sprint planning process and more importantly to measure if the development process improvements we are making is having a positive impact on the team velocity.</p>
<p>I have found the best use of the story point averages are within the Sprint Planning meeting where they are used as a reality check to avoid over zealous teams signing up to too much work.  The difference I have seen in taking this approach rather than just to base the next sprint on the previous sprint, is that teams are completing their work within the sprint period more and more.</p>
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